Proposition bets, including platforms like Kalshi, get lumped in with investing more often than they should. Tom’s answer is simple: no, they aren’t. He’ll go to a casino now and then and bet on craps or blackjack with money he can afford to lose, for entertainment, not because he’s trying to build wealth. That’s fine as entertainment. It is not a portfolio strategy.
What he tells young people is to start investing in private equity, get into real estate and vacation-rental deals, and own cash-flowing assets. Build that portfolio early so it compounds, and so you have a chance to retire earlier. Have fun with the bets if you want, but only with money you can afford to lose, and don’t confuse that with your actual investments.
Key points
- Prediction markets, sportsbooks, lotteries and casinos are entertainment, not investing.
- If you play, only risk money you can afford to lose, and don’t expect it to build wealth.
- The alternative in this short is to start early in private equity, real estate and other cash-flowing assets.
- Keep a bright line between fun bets and the portfolio you actually depend on.
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